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W7EES > SWPC 01.01.19 20:14l 49 Lines 1638 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6529_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<N3HYM<KF5JRV<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 181219/2327Z 6529@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 541 km/s at 19/1349Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
19/1228Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/1349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 179 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22
Dec).
III. Event probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 070
Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 19 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
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