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W7EES > SWPC 01.01.19 20:14l 50 Lines 1688 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6513_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<ZL2BAU<N9PMO<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 181218/2345Z 6513@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec, 21 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 18/1631Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 18/0018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/1300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 170 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 070
Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 18 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 008/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/15/15
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