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W7EES > SWPC 02.01.19 20:41l 48 Lines 1664 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6743_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<N3HYM<N3IP<NS2B<KF5JRV<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 181231/1557Z 6743@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 28/2101Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 29/0139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/0715Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2832 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Dec,
31 Dec, 01 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 069
Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 29 Dec 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 019/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 010/010-009/010-008/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/20
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