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W7EES > SWPC 03.01.19 21:36l 51 Lines 1654 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6757_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<LU3DVN<LU1HVK<LU9DCE<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 181231/2358Z 6757@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 30/2100Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 31/1005Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
31/1006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3751 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03
Jan).
III. Event probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 069
Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 31 Dec 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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