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W7EES > SWPC 10.01.19 14:37l 47 Lines 1644 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6839_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<N3HYM<NS2B<KF5JRV<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190102/2338Z 6839@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 404 km/s at 02/0757Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 737 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Jan), quiet to active levels on day
two (04 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (05 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 075
Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 02 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 005/005-010/014-017/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/35
Minor Storm 01/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 10/40/65
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