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W7EES > SWPC 04.02.19 22:47l 46 Lines 1571 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7194_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N3HYM<GB7YEW<AB0AF<KF5JRV<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190113/2321Z 7194@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 371 km/s at 13/0111Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 444 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 069
Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 13 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 005/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/20/20
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