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W7EES > SWPC 01.04.19 00:02l 48 Lines 1684 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8036_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<ZL2BAU<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190302/2339Z 8036@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 603 km/s at 01/2240Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 02/0405Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/0338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 62290 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Mar, 04 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (05 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 069
Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 02 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 018/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 011/012-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/15/15
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