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W7EES > SWPC 01.04.19 00:02l 48 Lines 1687 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8080_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<ZL2BAU<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190305/1232Z 8080@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 03/2321Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 04/1244Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
04/1242Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 44100 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (05 Mar, 06 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (07 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 071
Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 04 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 007/006-006/005-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/20
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