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W7EES > SWPC 01.04.19 00:02l 49 Lines 1704 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8005_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<N3HYM<N9LCF<KQ0I<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190301/2354Z 8005@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 01/2028Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 01/0911Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 01/0935Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 27886 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 070
Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 01 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 017/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 013/015-011/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/15
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