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W7EES > SWPC 01.04.19 00:21l 52 Lines 1839 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8142_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<N3HYM<NS2B<VA7RBP<GB7YEW<W9ABA<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 190309/0000Z 8142@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/0319Z from Region 2734 (N08W17). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 07/2103Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 07/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
07/2108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2983 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Mar, 10 Mar)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (11 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Mar 072
Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 08 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 008/008-006/008-022/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/40
Minor Storm 01/01/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/55
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