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W7EES > SWPC 01.04.19 00:21l 51 Lines 1756 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8174_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<N3HYM<NS2B<VA7RBP<GB7YEW<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190311/0026Z 8174@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11
Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 483 km/s at 09/2312Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
10/1900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
10/0050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2257 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Mar), unsettled to
active levels on day two (12 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day
three (13 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 071
Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 071/071/070
90 Day Mean 10 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 022/030-014/018-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/35
Minor Storm 20/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/35/35
Major-severe storm 55/40/40
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