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W7EES > SWPC 02.04.19 21:45l 48 Lines 1685 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8271_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<NS2B<VA7RBP<GB7YEW<W9ABA<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 190316/2354Z 8271@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 16/2042Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 15/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
16/1442Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 217 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 070
Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 16 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/15/15
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