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W7EES > SWPC 05.04.19 20:59l 49 Lines 1718 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8345_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<NS2B<VA7RBP<GB7YEW<W9ABA<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 190320/2339Z 8345@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
20/1118Z from Region 2736 (N09W35). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Mar,
22 Mar, 23 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 19/2328Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1551 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Mar, 22 Mar) and quiet to
major storm levels on day three (23 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 077
Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 20 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 006/005-005/005-017/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/01/40
Major-severe storm 01/01/20
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/65
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