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W7EES > SWPC 07.04.19 21:06l 49 Lines 1748 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8392_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<UA6ADV<ZS0MEE<GB7YEW<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190324/0240Z @:W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM #:8392 BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (24 Mar) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day two (25 Mar)
and expected to be very low on day three (26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 321 km/s at 22/2302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 813 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (25 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (26
Mar).
III. Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M 10/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 079
Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 080/077/074
90 Day Mean 23 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 020/025-010/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/20/10
Minor Storm 30/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 70/20/20
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