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W7EES > SWPC 07.04.19 21:06l 49 Lines 1751 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8418_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<UA6ADV<ZS0MEE<GB7YEW<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190325/1345Z @:W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM #:8418 BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (25 Mar) and expected to
be very low on days two and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 297 km/s at 24/2052Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
24/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
24/0538Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 955 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (25 Mar, 27 Mar)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 075
Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 073/071/070
90 Day Mean 24 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 014/015-008/008-013/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/30
Minor Storm 10/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/30
Major-severe storm 30/20/45
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