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W7EES > SWPC 07.04.19 23:09l 52 Lines 1699 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8427_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<N3HYM<KF5JRV<KE0GB<AB0AF<N9PMO<VE1MPF<
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Sent: 190326/2211Z 8427@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 369 km/s at 26/1143Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 26/0003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
26/0308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 363 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Mar, 28 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 069
Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 070/068/068
90 Day Mean 26 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 009/012-015/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/25
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/55/40
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