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W7EES > SWPC 08.04.19 20:07l 51 Lines 1699 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8482_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N3HYM<LU9DCE<XE1FH<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190329/1248Z 8482@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar, 31 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 28/1743Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 28/0826Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
28/1258Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 139 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Mar 068
Predicted 29 Mar-31 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 28 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 009/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/25
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