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W7EES > SWPC 09.04.19 19:36l 48 Lines 1696 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8590_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<KF5JRV<AB0AF<GB7YEW<W9ABA<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 190406/1135Z 8590@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 533 km/s at 05/1154Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 05/0732Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/0519Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 8559 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Apr, 08
Apr) and quiet to active levels on day two (07 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 072
Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 05 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 007/010-010/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/20
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/30/25
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