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W7EES > SWPC 09.04.19 20:06l 49 Lines 1735 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8610_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<KF5JRV<AB0AF<GB7YEW<W9ABA<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 190409/0030Z 8610@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Apr, 10 Apr, 11 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 08/1243Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 08/0440Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
08/0415Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 23078 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 079
Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 08 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 010/012-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/25/25
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