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W7EES > SWPC 14.04.19 01:01l 49 Lines 1701 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8632_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190409/2232Z 8632@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 09/1216Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 09/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/1215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4297 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Apr,
11 Apr, 12 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 079
Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 079/078/078
90 Day Mean 09 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 009/010-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/25
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