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W7EES > SWPC 22.04.19 17:52l 48 Lines 1673 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8789_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<N3HYM<KF5JRV<W9JUN<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190422/0239Z 8789@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Apr, 23 Apr, 24 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 381 km/s at 20/2341Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
21/1838Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
20/2338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 221 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Apr 069
Predicted 22 Apr-24 Apr 069/068/068
90 Day Mean 21 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr 006/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/25
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 20/35/35
Major-severe storm 20/25/25
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