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W7EES > SWPC 21.06.19 02:45l 48 Lines 1930 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9566_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IQ5KG<IK1NHL<CX2SA<N3HYM<N9LCF<W9JUN<
W7EES
Sent: 190621/0038Z 9566@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s at 20/0838Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 20/0451Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/0455Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 068
Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 20 Jun 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/10
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