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W7EES > SWPC 22.06.19 03:02l 48 Lines 1881 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9607_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190622/0047Z 9607@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 418 km/s at 21/1311Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
21/0458Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/0319Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24
Jun).
III. Event probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 067
Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 21 Jun 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/15
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