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W7EES > SWPC 09.09.19 21:01l 50 Lines 1969 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10719_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<VA3TOK<VA7RBP<NS2B<KF5JRV<
W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190813/0007Z 10719@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 483 km/s at 12/1259Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
12/0825Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/0854Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5159 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15
Aug).
III. Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 067
Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 12 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
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