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W7EES > SWPC 09.09.19 21:02l 48 Lines 1966 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10870_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190821/2241Z 10870@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 412 km/s at 21/0010Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
21/0123Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
21/0153Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 706 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24
Aug).
III. Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 067
Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 21 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
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