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W7EES > SWPC 09.09.19 21:06l 47 Lines 1948 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11009_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<KF5JRV<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190829/1030Z 11009@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 522 km/s at 28/0706Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
27/2300Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/2313Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (30 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (31 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 066
Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 28 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 006/005-006/008-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/40
Minor Storm 01/05/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/25/60
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