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W7EES > SWPC 09.09.19 21:06l 49 Lines 2070 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11056_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<KF5JRV<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190831/2323Z 11056@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 754 km/s at 31/1250Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 30/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 31/0042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 8408 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (01 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (02 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (03 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 066
Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 31 Aug 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 029/042
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 021/030-013/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/15
Minor Storm 40/15/05
Major-severe storm 20/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 75/45/25
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