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W7EES > SWPC 09.09.19 21:06l 48 Lines 2016 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11102_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<N9LCF<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190903/0016Z 11102@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 769 km/s at 01/2354Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 01/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 01/2255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 61291 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Sep) and quiet levels on
days two and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 069
Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 02 Sep 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 033/049
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 019/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 009/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/20
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