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W7EES > SWPC 09.09.19 21:07l 53 Lines 1995 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11125_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<UA6ADV<CX2SA<N3HYM<N9LCF<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190905/0228Z @:W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM #:11125 BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 674 km/s at 04/1700Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 04/1439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
04/1418Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 87889 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Sep,
06 Sep, 07 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 069
Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 04 Sep 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 007/008-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/25/20
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