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W7EES > SWPC 09.09.19 21:07l 49 Lines 1982 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11190_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<F3KT<CX2SA<N3HYM<
N9LCF<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190908/2328Z 11190@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 08/1541Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 08/1753Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/1054Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 17317 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11
Sep).
III. Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 068
Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 08 Sep 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 005/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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