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W7EES > SWPC 19.10.19 19:49l 58 Lines 2226 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11395_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 190923/0018Z 11395@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 372 km/s at 22/1002Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
22/1515Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/2124Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24
Sep, 25 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 068
Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 22 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 010/012-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/30/30
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