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W7EES > SWPC 19.10.19 19:51l 48 Lines 1991 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11496_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<KF5JRV<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190929/2314Z 11496@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 646 km/s at 28/2226Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 29/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/2023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 49260 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Sep,
01 Oct, 02 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 067
Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 29 Sep 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 021/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 007/010-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/20/20
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