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W7EES > SWPC 19.10.19 19:51l 59 Lines 2379 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11539_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 191002/2347Z 11539@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
>From w7ees%w7ees.or.usa.noam@i0ojj.ampr.org Thu Oct 3 02:43:32 2019
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 02/1658Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 02/0738Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/1041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3906 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (04 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (05 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 068
Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 02 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 009/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/20
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