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W7EES > SWPC 19.10.19 19:52l 57 Lines 2214 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11689_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<VE2PKT<N3HYM<N9LCF<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 191013/0009Z 11689@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
>From w7ees%w7ees.or.usa.noam@i0ojj.ampr.org Sun Oct 13 02:19:21 2019
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 467 km/s at 11/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 740 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Oct,
14 Oct, 15 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 068
Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 12 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 007/008-008/008-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/25
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