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W7EES > SWPC 19.10.19 19:52l 59 Lines 2311 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11733_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 191016/2253Z 11733@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
>From w7ees%w7ees.or.usa.noam@i0ojj.ampr.org Thu Oct 17 01:27:07 2019
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s at 16/1628Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 15/2358Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
16/0233Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 223 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19
Oct).
III. Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 066
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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