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W7EES > SWPC 19.10.19 18:52l 59 Lines 2351 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11683_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 191011/2315Z 11683@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
>From w7ees%w7ees.or.usa.noam@i0ojj.ampr.org Sat Oct 12 02:07:21 2019
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 11/1347Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 11/0217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/1135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 514 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (12 Oct, 14 Oct) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (13 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 069
Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 11 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 006/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 05/25/15
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