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W7EES > SWPC 21.10.19 00:55l 48 Lines 2029 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11786_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<N9LCF<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 191020/2250Z 11786@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 372 km/s at 19/2112Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
20/2020Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/2008Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 125 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (22 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (23 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 065
Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 20 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 009/012-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 30/25/05
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