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W7EES > SWPC 28.10.19 02:42l 47 Lines 1888 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11894_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<N3HYM<NS2B<KF5JRV<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 191028/0004Z 11894@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 672 km/s at 27/0000Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 36223 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29
Oct, 30 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 069
Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 27 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 017/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 010/012-010/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/40/35
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