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W7EES > SWPC 06.11.19 02:42l 49 Lines 2004 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 12064_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 191106/0013Z 12064@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 450 km/s at 05/1431Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
05/0951Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
05/1601Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3049 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Nov, 07 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 070
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 070/070/068
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 009/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 30/25/10
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