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CX2SA > SWPC 08.05.15 00:22l 62 Lines 2208 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20263_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150507/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:20263 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:20263_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 May 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
07/2000Z from Region 2339 (N13E47). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(08 May, 09 May, 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at
06/2228Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 06/2111Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached 0 nT at 07/1831Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10
May).
III. Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 147
Predicted 08 May-10 May 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 07 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 021/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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