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W7EES > SWPC 22.12.19 02:13l 50 Lines 1968 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 13049_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<N7HPX<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 191221/2316Z 13049@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec, 24 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 609 km/s at 21/0325Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
21/0451Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
21/0515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 601 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec, 24
Dec).
III. Event probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 071
Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 21 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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