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W7EES > SWPC 01.03.20 23:22l 48 Lines 2009 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 13940_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0PBR<OK2PEN<N1URO<
N9LYA<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 200201/0045Z 13940@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 31/0933Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 31/0221Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
31/0215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 334 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Feb) and quiet levels on
days two and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 074
Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 074/072/070
90 Day Mean 31 Jan 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 011/010-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/10/10
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