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W7EES > SWPC 02.03.20 00:24l 61 Lines 2306 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 14025_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 02/0117Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 02/0437Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/2039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 361 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05
Feb).
III. Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 072
Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 02 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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