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W7EES > SWPC 02.03.20 00:26l 48 Lines 2010 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 14159_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<ED1ZAC<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200209/0027Z 14159@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 07/2125Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 07/2220Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/2220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2023 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 Feb, 10 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (11 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 072
Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 08 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/40
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