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LU9DCE > SOLAR    02.03.20 00:26l 78 Lines 3024 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8962_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 12 02
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IQ5KG<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 200212/0400Z 8962@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19

            __    _  _  ___  ____   ___  ____    ____  ____  ____
           (  )  / )( \/ _ \(    \ / __)(  __)  (  _ \(  _ \/ ___)
           / (_/\) \/ (\__  )) D (( (__  ) _)    ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
           \____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____)  (____/(____/(____/
               ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
                   BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
                         GNU / LINUX - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 11/0230Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/0014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/0013Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1640 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 071
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

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//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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