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W7EES > SWPC 02.03.20 00:31l 48 Lines 2013 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15013_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200229/1331Z 15013@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 471 km/s at 28/2016Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
28/1634Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1195 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 29 Feb-02 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 071
Predicted 29 Feb-02 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 28 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Feb-02 Mar 008/010-011/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Feb-02 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor Storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/35/35
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