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W7EES > SWPC 02.03.20 00:31l 48 Lines 2025 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15030_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200301/0055Z 15030@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Feb 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 787 km/s at 29/0641Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 29/1526Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/1141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 684 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Mar, 02 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Feb 070
Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 29 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Feb 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 011/012-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/35/20
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