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LU9DCE > SOLAR 10.03.20 06:10l 69 Lines 2694 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11121_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 10 03
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 200310/0410Z 11121@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CYGWIN - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Mar 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 375 km/s at 09/1802Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
09/0545Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
09/1530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 173 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Mar, 11 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (12 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Mar 071
Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 09 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/30/20
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Progress might have been all right once, but it's gone on too long.
-- Ogden Nash
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