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W7EES > SWPC 16.03.20 01:40l 50 Lines 1968 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15408_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<N7HPX<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200315/2332Z 15408@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 387 km/s at 15/1721Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
15/1627Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/1719Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18
Mar).
III. Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 070
Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 15 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
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