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W7EES > SWPC 10.04.20 02:40l 49 Lines 2044 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15982_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<F3KT<F4DUR<CX2SA<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200410/0014Z 15982@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 09/0012Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 09/0544Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/0955Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 183 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Apr), quiet to active
levels on day two (11 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (12 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 070
Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 09 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 007/008-010/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/10
Minor Storm 05/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 25/45/10
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